Environmental surveillance for COVID-19 using SARS-CoV-2 RNA concentration in wastewater - a study in District East, Karachi, Pakistan.

Background: Wastewater-based surveillance is used to track the temporal patterns of the SARS-CoV-2 virus in communities. Viral RNA particle detection in wastewater samples can indicate an outbreak within a catchment area. We describe the feasibility of using a sewage network to monitor SARS-CoV-2 trend and use of genomic sequencing to describe the viral variant abundance in an urban district in Karachi, Pakistan. This was among the first studies from Pakistan to demonstrate the surveillance for SARS-CoV-2 from a semi-formal sewage system. Methods: Four sites draining into the Lyari River in District East, Karachi, were identified and included in the current study. Raw sewage samples were collected early morning twice weekly from each site between June 10, 2021 and January 17, 2022, using Bag Mediated Filtration System (BMFS). Secondary concentration of filtered samples was achieved by ultracentrifugation and skim milk flocculation. SARS-CoV-2 RNA concentrations in the samples were estimated using PCR (Qiagen ProMega kits for N1 & N2 genes). A distributed-lag negative binomial regression model within a hierarchical Bayesian framework was used to describe the relationship between wastewater RNA concentration and COVID-19 cases from the catchment area. Genomic sequencing was performed using Illumina iSeq100. Findings: Among the 151 raw sewage samples included in the study, 123 samples (81.5%) tested positive for N1 or N2 genes. The average SARS-CoV-2 RNA concentrations in the sewage samples at each lag (1-14 days prior) were associated with the cases reported for the respective days, with a peak association observed on lag day 10 (RR: 1.15; 95% Credible Interval: 1.10-1.21). Genomic sequencing showed that the delta variant dominated till September 2022, while the omicron variant was identified in November 2022. Interpretation: Wastewater-based surveillance, together with genomic sequencing provides valuable information for monitoring the community temporal trend of SARS-CoV-2. Funding: PATH, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, and Global Innovation Fund.

Incorporating Efficacy Data from Initial Trials Into Subsequent Evaluations: Application to Vaccines Against Respiratory Syncytial Virus.

BACKGROUND: When a randomized controlled trial fails to demonstrate statistically significant efficacy against the primary endpoint, a potentially costly new trial would need to be conducted to receive licensure. Incorporating data from previous trials might allow for more efficient follow-up trials to demonstrate efficacy, speeding the availability of effective vaccines. METHODS: Based on the outcomes from a failed trial of a maternal vaccine against respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), we simulated data for a new Bayesian group-sequential trial. We analyzed the data either ignoring data from the previous trial (i.e., weakly informative prior distributions) or using prior distributions incorporating the historical data into the analysis. We evaluated scenarios where efficacy in the new trial was the same, greater than, or less than that in the original trial. For each scenario, we evaluated the statistical power and type I error rate for estimating the vaccine effect following interim analyses. RESULTS: When we used a stringent threshold to control the type I error rate, analyses incorporating historical data had a small advantage over trials that did not. If control of type I error is less important (e.g., in a postlicensure evaluation), the incorporation of historical data can provide a substantial boost in efficiency. CONCLUSIONS: Due to the need to control the type I error rate in trials used to license a vaccine, incorporating historical data provides little additional benefit in terms of stopping the trial early. However, these statistical approaches could be promising in evaluations that use real-world evidence following licensure.

Nirmatrelvir/Ritonavir Use and Hospitalizations or Death in a Previously Uninfected Nonhospitalized High-Risk Population With COVID-19: A Matched Cohort Study.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the association of nirmatrelvir/ritonavir (NMV/r) with hospitalization or death within 30 days as compared with untreated controls previously uninfected and nonhospitalized. METHODS: We used a matched cohort design using inverse probability of treatment weight (IPTW). Individuals prescribed NMV/r within 3 days of COVID-19 diagnosis were compared with IPTW-based untreated controls. Variables for IPTW included age, race, sex, body mass index, geographic location, vaccination status, and multiple comorbidities. Additional analyses were conducted on NMV/r-treated and propensity score-matched untreated controls. RESULTS: Among 7615 individuals prescribed NMV/r and 62 077 controls identified between 1 January 2022 and 25 February 2023, the risk of hospitalization/death was lower among NMV/r-treated persons vs untreated controls (243 vs 3468 events; absolute risk difference [ARD], -2.36 [95% CI, -2.57 to -2.14]). The difference was significant for those >60 and ≤60 years old (ARD, -3.86 [95% CI, -4.19 to -3.54] vs -0.27 [95% CI, -0.51 to -0.03]) and for persons asymptomatic and symptomatic (ARD, -7.09 [95% CI, -7.62 to -6.55] vs -1.46 [95% CI, -1.66 to -1.25]). Significant benefit was observed among individuals unvaccinated and vaccinated, with or without a booster dose. CONCLUSIONS: NMV/r is associated with a significant reduction in 30-day hospitalization or death among individuals previously uninfected and nonhospitalized.

Postmortem minimally invasive tissue sampling in communities: exploring perceptions of families, funeral workers, religious and community leaders and healthcare providers from Pakistan.

BACKGROUND: Minimally invasive tissue sampling (MITS) has increasingly been used to improve the diagnosis of disease and identification of the cause of death, particularly in underserved areas. However, there are multiple barriers to accessing those who die within the community, our study aimed to explore the perceptions and insights of community members and healthcare providers regarding the feasibility of implementing MITS in community settings. METHODS: A qualitative exploratory study was conducted. A total of twenty one in-depth interviews were conducted with deceased infants' parents, elders of the family, religious leaders, community leaders, and funeral workers. Focus group discussions were conducted with health care providers (n = 14) in two peri-urban slum areas of Karachi, Pakistan. The duration of this study was from August to October 2020. Data was analyzed using thematic analysis and was coded and merged into categories forming eight major themes. RESULTS: In general, participants viewed minimally invasive tissue sampling (MITS) as beneficial for improving child health, though some had concerns about disrespecting the deceased during sample collection. Misinformation, fear of needles, and medical procedures were major barriers to MITS implementation. To enhance acceptance, community and religious leaders suggested using religious rulings, obtaining parental consent, ensuring confidentiality, and increasing efforts of community engagement. Community healthcare providers, along with funeral workers, recommended providing community members with grief counseling to increase study participation. Besides concerns about sampling interfering with respect for the decease, community members also raised concerns about misinformation. Further, participants provided feedback on the design and appearance of the mobile van used to collect MITS samples from children under the age of five. CONCLUSION: This study is critical for understanding the challenges associated with implementation of community-based MITS sampling in Pakistan. Integrating the use of a mobile van for sample collection, grief counseling along with community engagement sessions and advocacy will help address community-based misinformation and develop community trust.

Comprehensive profiling of social mixing patterns in resource poor countries: a mixed methods research protocol.

Background: Low-and-middle-income countries (LMICs) bear a disproportionate burden of communicable diseases. Social interaction data inform infectious disease models and disease prevention strategies. The variations in demographics and contact patterns across ages, cultures, and locations significantly impact infectious disease dynamics and pathogen transmission. LMICs lack sufficient social interaction data for infectious disease modeling. Methods: To address this gap, we will collect qualitative and quantitative data from eight study sites (encompassing both rural and urban settings) across Guatemala, India, Pakistan, and Mozambique. We will conduct focus group discussions and cognitive interviews to assess the feasibility and acceptability of our data collection tools at each site. Thematic and rapid analyses will help to identify key themes and categories through coding, guiding the design of quantitative data collection tools (enrollment survey, contact diaries, exit survey, and wearable proximity sensors) and the implementation of study procedures.We will create three age-specific contact matrices (physical, nonphysical, and both) at each study site using data from standardized contact diaries to characterize the patterns of social mixing. Regression analysis will be conducted to identify key drivers of contacts. We will comprehensively profile the frequency, duration, and intensity of infants' interactions with household members using high resolution data from the proximity sensors and calculating infants' proximity score (fraction of time spent by each household member in proximity with the infant, over the total infant contact time) for each household member. Discussion: Our qualitative data yielded insights into the perceptions and acceptability of contact diaries and wearable proximity sensors for collecting social mixing data in LMICs. The quantitative data will allow a more accurate representation of human interactions that lead to the transmission of pathogens through close contact in LMICs. Our findings will provide more appropriate social mixing data for parameterizing mathematical models of LMIC populations. Our study tools could be adapted for other studies.

Changing social contact patterns among US workers during the COVID-19 pandemic: April 2020 to December 2021.

Non-pharmaceutical interventions minimize social contacts, hence the spread of respiratory pathogens such as influenza and SARS-CoV-2. Globally, there is a paucity of social contact data from the workforce. In this study, we quantified two-day contact patterns among USA employees. Contacts were defined as face-to-face conversations, involving physical touch or proximity to another individual and were collected using electronic self-kept diaries. Data were collected over 4 rounds from 2020 to 2021 during the COVID-19 pandemic. Mean (standard deviation) contacts reported by 1456 participants were 2.5 (2.5), 8.2 (7.1), 9.2 (7.1) and 10.1 (9.5) across round 1 (April-June 2020), 2 (November 2020-January 2021), 3 (June-August 2021), and 4 (November-December 2021), respectively. Between round 1 and 2, we report a 3-fold increase in the mean number of contacts reported per participant with no major increases from round 2-4. We then modeled SARS-CoV-2 transmission at home, work, and community settings. The model revealed reduced relative transmission in all settings in round 1. Subsequently, transmission increased at home and in the community but remained exceptionally low in work settings. To accurately parameterize models of infection transmission and control, we need empirical social contact data that capture human mixing behavior across time.

Social contact patterns among employees in U.S. long-term care facilities during the COVID-19 pandemic, December 2020 to June 2021.

OBJECTIVE: We measured contact patterns using social contact diaries for 157 U.S. long-term care facility employees from December 2020 - June 2021. These data are crucial for analyzing mathematical transmission models and for informing healthcare setting infection control policy. RESULTS: The median number of daily contacts was 10 (IQR 8-11). Household contacts were more likely partially masked than fully masked, more likely to involve physical contact, and longer in duration compared to facility contacts.

Kindergarten Vaccination Status in California After Changes to Medical Exemption Policy.

This study evaluates changes in medical exemptions and geographic distribution of kindergarteners in California not up to date on vaccination after changes to state legislation.

Moral foundations and HPV vaccine acceptance in the United States: State, parental, and individual factors.

RATIONALE: Appeals to intuitive morality may present a novel approach to addressing vaccine hesitancy. OBJECTIVE: To better understand the relationship between morality and vaccination by employing Moral Foundations Theory to studies surrounding the HPV vaccination at multiple different levels of decision making. METHOD: We employed three different study modalities which examined moralities link to vaccination by employing Moral Foundations Theory. A state-wide ecological study aimed to understand population level trends. Two randomized control interventional studies were then created to understand the effects of Moral Foundations Theory based interventions on both parents of children and individual decision makers. RESULTS: We demonstrated a negative association at the state level between the purity moral foundations and HPV vaccination rates (ß = -.75, SE 0.23; p < .01) and a positive association between loyalty and HPV vaccination rates (ß = 0.62 SE 0.24; p < .05). The parental study built upon this by demonstrating negative association between higher moral purity scores and attitudes towards the HPV vaccine and intention to vaccinate their children (ß = -0.27 SE 0.07; p < .001). Our final study demonstrated a Moral Foundations Theory based intervention was associated with an increase in the odds of indicating an intention to receive the HPV vaccination (adjusted Odds Ratio (aOR) 2.59, 95% Confidence Interval (CI) 1.62-4.14). This equates to a 20% increase in the predicted probability of the intention to receive an HPV vaccine (39% CI (36%-42%) vs 60% CI (57%-63%). CONCLUSIONS: Together, these studies demonstrate that moral foundations, specifically the purity foundation, appear to have a strong and consistent relationship with HPV vaccination. They also demonstrate the how moral values-based interventions may serve as a novel approach to increase HPV vaccine uptake with potential to be employed to target vaccine hesitancy more broadly.

Persuasive COVID-19 vaccination campaigns on Facebook and nationwide vaccination coverage in Ukraine, India, and Pakistan.

Social media platforms have a wide and influential reach, and as such provide an opportunity to increase vaccine uptake. To date, there is no large-scale, robust evidence on the offline effects of online messaging campaigns. We aimed to test whether pre-tested, persuasive messaging campaigns from UNICEF, disseminated on Facebook, influenced COVID-19 vaccine uptake in Ukraine, India, and Pakistan. In Ukraine, we deployed a stepped-wedge randomized controlled trial (RCT). Half of the 24 oblasts (provinces) received five weeks of the intervention, the other half ten weeks of the intervention. In India, an RCT with an augmented synthetic control was conducted in five states (Bihar, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan), whereby 40 out of 174 districts were randomized to receive six weeks of intervention. In Pakistan we deployed a pre-post design, whereby 25 city districts received six weeks of the intervention. Weekly COVID-19 vaccination data was sourced through government databases. Using Poisson regression models, the association between the intervention and vaccine uptake was estimated. In Ukraine we conducted a survey among Facebook users at three time points during the RCT, to ascertain vaccination intentions and trust in vaccines. The campaigns reached more than 110 million Facebook users and garnered 2.9 million clicks. In Ukraine, we found that the intervention did not affect oblast-level vaccination coverage (Relative Risk (RR): 0.93, 95% Confidence Interval (CI) 0.86-1.01). Similarly, in India and Pakistan we found no effect of our intervention (India: RR 0.85, 95% CI 0.70-1.04; Pakistan: RR 0.64, 95% CI 0.01-29.9). The survey among Facebook users in Ukraine showed that trust in vaccines and information sources was an important predictor of vaccination status and intention to get vaccinated. Our campaigns on Facebook had a wide reach, which did not translate in shifting behaviours. Timing and external events may have limited the effectiveness of our interventions.

Behavioral interventions for vaccination uptake: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Human behavior and more specifically behavioral insight-based approaches to vaccine uptake have often been overlooked. While there have been a few narrative reviews indexed in Medline on behavioral interventions to increase vaccine uptake, to our knowledge, none have been systematic reviews and meta-analyses covering not just high but also low-and-middle income countries. METHODS: We included 613 studies from the Medline database in our systematic review and meta-analysis categorizing different behavioral interventions in 9 domains: education campaigns, on-site vaccination, incentives, free vaccination, institutional recommendation, provider recommendation, reminder and recall, message framing, and vaccine champion. Additionally, considering that there is variability in the acceptance of vaccines among different populations, we assessed studies from both high-income countries (HICs) and low- to middle-income countries (LMICs), separately. FINDINGS: Our results showed that behavioral interventions can considerably improve vaccine uptake in most settings. All domains that we examined improved vaccine uptake with the highest effect size associated with provider recommendation (OR: 3.4 (95%CI: 2.5-4.6); Domain: motivation) and on-site vaccination (OR: 2.9 (95%CI: 2.3-3.7); Domain: practical issues). While the number of studies conducted in LMICs was smaller, the quality of studies was similar with those conducted in HICs. Nevertheless, there were variations in the observed effect sizes. INTERPRETATION: Our findings indicate that "provider recommendation" and "on-site vaccination" along with other behavioral interventions can be employed to increase vaccination rates globally.

Distinguishing features of long COVID identified through immune profiling.

Post-acute infection syndromes may develop after acute viral disease1. Infection with SARS-CoV-2 can result in the development of a post-acute infection syndrome known as long COVID. Individuals with long COVID frequently report unremitting fatigue, post-exertional malaise, and a variety of cognitive and autonomic dysfunctions2-4. However, the biological processes that are associated with the development and persistence of these symptoms are unclear. Here 275 individuals with or without long COVID were enrolled in a cross-sectional study that included multidimensional immune phenotyping and unbiased machine learning methods to identify biological features associated with long COVID. Marked differences were noted in circulating myeloid and lymphocyte populations relative to the matched controls, as well as evidence of exaggerated humoral responses directed against SARS-CoV-2 among participants with long COVID. Furthermore, higher antibody responses directed against non-SARS-CoV-2 viral pathogens were observed among individuals with long COVID, particularly Epstein-Barr virus. Levels of soluble immune mediators and hormones varied among groups, with cortisol levels being lower among participants with long COVID. Integration of immune phenotyping data into unbiased machine learning models identified the key features that are most strongly associated with long COVID status. Collectively, these findings may help to guide future studies into the pathobiology of long COVID and help with developing relevant biomarkers.

Evidence of leaky protection following COVID-19 vaccination and SARS-CoV-2 infection in an incarcerated population.

Whether SARS-CoV-2 infection and COVID-19 vaccines confer exposure-dependent ("leaky") protection against infection remains unknown. We examined the effect of prior infection, vaccination, and hybrid immunity on infection risk among residents of Connecticut correctional facilities during periods of predominant Omicron and Delta transmission. Residents with cell, cellblock, and no documented exposure to SARS-CoV-2 infected residents were matched by facility and date. During the Omicron period, prior infection, vaccination, and hybrid immunity reduced the infection risk of residents without a documented exposure (HR: 0.36 [0.25-0.54]; 0.57 [0.42-0.78]; 0.24 [0.15-0.39]; respectively) and with cellblock exposures (0.61 [0.49-0.75]; 0.69 [0.58-0.83]; 0.41 [0.31-0.55]; respectively) but not with cell exposures (0.89 [0.58-1.35]; 0.96 [0.64-1.46]; 0.80 [0.46-1.39]; respectively). Associations were similar during the Delta period and when analyses were restricted to tested residents. Although associations may not have been thoroughly adjusted due to dataset limitations, the findings suggest that prior infection and vaccination may be leaky, highlighting the potential benefits of pairing vaccination with non-pharmaceutical interventions in crowded settings.

Molnupiravir Use and 30-Day Hospitalizations or Death in a Previously Uninfected Nonhospitalized High-risk Population With COVID-19.

BACKGROUND: Clinical benefit of molnupiravir (MPV) in coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)-infected subpopulations is unclear. METHODS: We used a matched cohort study design to determine the rate of hospitalization or death within 30 days of COVID-19 diagnosis among MPV treated and untreated controls. Participants were nonhospitalized, previously uninfected Veterans with a first confirmed severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection between 1 January and 31 August 2022, who were prescribed MPV within 3 days of COVID-19 diagnosis, and matched individuals who were not prescribed MPV. RESULTS: Among 1459 matched pairs, the incidence of hospitalization/death was not different among MPV treated versus untreated controls (48 vs 44 cases; absolute risk difference [ARD], 0.27; 95% confidence interval [CI], -.94 to 1.49). No benefit was observed among those >60 or ≤60 years old (ARD, 0.27; 95% CI, -1.25 to 1.79 vs ARD, -0.29; 95% CI, -1.22 to 1.80), those with specific comorbidities, or by vaccination status. A significant benefit was observed in asymptomatic but not in symptomatic persons (ARD, -2.80; 95% CI, -4.74 to -.87 vs ARD, 1.12; 95% CI -.31 to 2.55). Kaplan-Meier curves did not show a difference in proportion of persons who were hospitalized or died among MPV treated compared with untreated controls (logrank P = .7). CONCLUSIONS: MPV was not associated with a reduction in hospitalization or death within 30 days of COVID-19 diagnosis. A subgroup of patients presenting without symptoms experienced a benefit.

Cytokinopathy with aberrant cytotoxic lymphocytes and profibrotic myeloid response in SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccine-associated myocarditis.

Rare immune-mediated cardiac tissue inflammation can occur after vaccination, including after SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccines. However, the underlying immune cellular and molecular mechanisms driving this pathology remain poorly understood. Here, we investigated a cohort of patients who developed myocarditis and/or pericarditis with elevated troponin, B-type natriuretic peptide, and C-reactive protein levels as well as cardiac imaging abnormalities shortly after SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccination. Contrary to early hypotheses, patients did not demonstrate features of hypersensitivity myocarditis, nor did they have exaggerated SARS-CoV-2-specific or neutralizing antibody responses consistent with a hyperimmune humoral mechanism. We additionally found no evidence of cardiac-targeted autoantibodies. Instead, unbiased systematic immune serum profiling revealed elevations in circulating interleukins (IL-1ß, IL-1RA, and IL-15), chemokines (CCL4, CXCL1, and CXCL10), and matrix metalloproteases (MMP1, MMP8, MMP9, and TIMP1). Subsequent deep immune profiling using single-cell RNA and repertoire sequencing of peripheral blood mononuclear cells during acute disease revealed expansion of activated CXCR3+ cytotoxic T cells and NK cells, both phenotypically resembling cytokine-driven killer cells. In addition, patients displayed signatures of inflammatory and profibrotic CCR2+ CD163+ monocytes, coupled with elevated serum-soluble CD163, that may be linked to the late gadolinium enhancement on cardiac MRI, which can persist for months after vaccination. Together, our results demonstrate up-regulation in inflammatory cytokines and corresponding lymphocytes with tissue-damaging capabilities, suggesting a cytokine-dependent pathology, which may further be accompanied by myeloid cell-associated cardiac fibrosis. These findings likely rule out some previously proposed mechanisms of mRNA vaccine--associated myopericarditis and point to new ones with relevance to vaccine development and clinical care.

Personal risk or societal benefit? Investigating adults' support for COVID-19 childhood vaccination.

Parental hesitancy poses a serious threat to the success of the COVID-19 childhood vaccination campaign. We investigate whether adults' opinions on childhood vaccination can be influenced via two survey experiments in Italy (n = 3,633 participants) and the UK (n = 3,314 participants). Respondents were randomly assigned to: a "risk treatment" that highlighted the potential risks of COVID-19 to a child, a "herd immunity treatment" that emphasized the community benefits of pediatric vaccination, or a control message. Participants' probability of supporting COVID-19 childhood vaccination was then assessed on a 0-100 scale. We find that the "risk treatment" reduced the proportion of Italian parents strongly against vaccination by up to 29.6 %, while increasing the proportion of neutral parents by up to 45.0 %. The "herd immunity treatment", instead, was only effective among non-parents, resulting in a lower proportion of individuals against pediatric vaccination and a higher proportion of individuals in favor (both shifted by around 20 %).

Validation of the Vaccination Trust Indicator (VTI) in a multi-country survey of adult vaccination attitudes.

Improved uptake of adult vaccinations could substantially reduce the burden of infectious disease worldwide, however very few countries achieve high coverage of recommended adult vaccinations. Vaccine hesitancy is an important driver of low vaccine uptake among adults but no measure currently exists to capture general vaccination attitudes in this population accurately and efficiently. We utilize data from two surveys of adult vaccine attitudes and uptake conducted in fifteen countries to evaluate the Vaccination Trust Indicator (VTI). The VTI is a six-item measure intended to capture general vaccine attitudes. We utilized multivariable logistic regression to examine the association between VTI scores and self-reported receipt of the seasonal influenza vaccine, receipt of a tetanus toxoid-containing vaccine and intent to receive the flu vaccine in the next season. In the five countries with self-reported vaccine receipt data, we found that a ten-point increase in VTI score was associated with a 50% increase in odds of influenza vaccine receipt (OR = 1.55, 95% CI = 1.48, 1.62) and 25% increase in the odds of tetanus vaccine receipt (OR = 1.26, 95% CI = 1.21, 1.30). Strong associations between VTI score and vaccine receipt were found in each country except China. A strong association between VTI score and intent to receive the influenza vaccine was found in all fifteen countries. The VTI is a promising tool for assessing adult immunization attitudes with clear and immediate uses for immunization programs globally.

Incorporating efficacy data from initial trials into subsequent evaluations: Application to vaccines against respiratory syncytial virus.

Background: When a randomized controlled trial fails to demonstrate statistically significant efficacy against the primary endpoint, a potentially costly new trial would need to be conducted to receive licensure. Incorporating data from previous trials might allow for the conduct of more efficient follow-up trials to demonstrate efficacy, speeding the availability of effective vaccines. Methods: Based on the outcomes from a failed trial of a maternal vaccine against respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), we simulated data for a new Bayesian group-sequential trial. The data were analyzed either ignoring data from the previous trial (i.e., weakly informative prior distributions) or using prior distributions that incorporate the historical data into the analysis. We evaluated scenarios where the efficacy in the new trial was the same, greater than, or less than the efficacy in the original trial. For each scenario, we evaluated the statistical power and type I error rate for estimating the vaccine effect following interim analyses. Results: If a stringent threshold is used to control the type I error rate, the analyses that incorporated historical data had a small advantage over trials that did not. If control of type I error is less important (e.g., in a post-licensure evaluation), the incorporation of historical data can provide a substantial boost in efficiency. Conclusions: Due to the need to control the type I error rate in trials used to license a vaccine, the incorporation of historical data provides little additional benefit in terms of stopping the trial early. However, these statistical approaches could be promising in evaluations that use real-world evidence following licensure.

Nonsystematic Reporting Biases of the SARS-CoV-2 Variant Mu Could Impact Our Understanding of the Epidemiological Dynamics of Emerging Variants.

Developing a timely and effective response to emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern (VOCs) is of paramount public health importance. Global health surveillance does not rely on genomic data alone to identify concerning variants when they emerge. Instead, methods that utilize genomic data to estimate the epidemiological dynamics of emerging lineages have the potential to serve as an early warning system. However, these methods assume that genomic data are uniformly reported across circulating lineages. In this study, we analyze differences in reporting delays among SARS-CoV-2 VOCs as a plausible explanation for the timing of the global response to the former VOC Mu. Mu likely emerged in South America in mid-2020, where its circulation was largely confined. In this study, we demonstrate that Mu was designated as a VOC ∼1 year after it emerged and find that the reporting of genomic data for Mu differed significantly than that of other VOCs within countries, states, and individual laboratories. Our findings suggest that nonsystematic biases in the reporting of genomic data may have delayed the global response to Mu. Until they are resolved, the surveillance gaps that affected the global response to Mu could impede the rapid and accurate assessment of future emerging variants.